Will the economic crisis lead to social unrest in the UK?

If the predictions of some economists are right and we are heading for a prolonged slump, then the answer to the question has to be yes. What is more difficult to predict is exactly how this social unrest will manifest itself and who will be the main actors. Some commentators are implying that we could see a return to the kind of disturbances that swept across the country during the early 1980s. My view is that as the UK has changed so much since the early 1980s as to be almost unrecognisable, the kinds of unrest that are likely to emerge will be somewhat different from anything we have previously .

The UK is a much more atomised and socially fragmented country than it was during the early 1980s. Sure, it was a divided country then but within the class blocks, particularly the working class, there was still some sense of solidarity. Responses to adverse situations still had some elements of a collective character to them. The social and economic changes that came to pass in the 1980s have led to a society where the response to an adverse situation is more likely to assume an individual character.

Given that we are living in a more fractured society where the sense of community has been seriously eroded over the decades, reactions to the stresses of the slump will be individuated ones. As people facing a bleak, empty future try to forget the slump by drinking, expect more in the way of drink related violence. Drug addiction, already endemic in some communities, is almost certain to increase as will the crimes associated with it. A rise in acquisitive and violent crime such as burglary and robbery is inevitable. All of these are self destructive expressions of incoherent anger at the hopelessness of the situation…the ultimate one being an increase in suicides as the consequences of the crisis wrecks people’s lives.

A grim scenario indeed… The fracturing of UK society and the seeming lack of any progressive alternative to neo-liberalism gives rise to a sense of despair as there seems to be no way out. For working class people experiencing the devastating consequences of the slump, unlike the 1980s, there is no political alternative on offer that can offer a progressive vision of social and economic advancement. All that has been on offer from the left over the last few decades has been an identity politics that denies the possibility of transformation and focuses instead on celebrating existing cultural identities…except that of the majority of the population. It is the majority who will be wooed with the reactionary identity politics of the likes of the British National Party (BNP). Simply because when there is no progressive vision of social and material advancement on offer, there is an inevitable retreat into the poisonous pit of identity politics.

There is a likelihood of some more communal expressions of anger. Some of these may be re-runs of 1980s style clashes between police and disaffected youth. What is more worrying is the possibility of inter-communal clashes. The experiment of multiculturalism has failed, leaving communities divided along seemingly unbridgeable ethnic and cultural divides. Once the inevitable austerity measures start to kick in, communal tensions in working class areas will be exacerbated as different groups compete with each other for rapidly shrinking public resources. Rest assured, the BNP and other elements on the far right will be ruthlessly exploiting this for all it’s worth and in some areas, on the other side of the divide, those groups advocating Islamic extremism will doubtless be seeking to increase their influence.

Reading through the reader’s comments on the websites of the likes of the Telegrapgh and the Mail, the level of middle class anger and rage is all too clear as they see their interests and aspirations threatened. I fully expect that certain elements of the middle class will have a role to play in protest and social unrest if Brown’s New Labour government digs in and tries to tough it out into 2010 when they will have reached their full term. As taxes inevitably start to rise in a futile bid to offset the frightening level of borrowing the government has taken on to bail out the banks, some form of tax strike is certainly on the cards.

Of course, a rapid escalation of the crisis caused by a second banking crisis would make some of the above scenarios redundant as there simply wouldn’t be enough in reserve to stem it. Effectively, all bets would be off as we would be looking at widespread system failure…

Yes, this is a grim piece. As someone who has always held progressive views, I find the scenarios outlined above frightening. When an economic crisis hits, much of the middle class will jump to the right. As ever, the working class are up for grabs. Only this time around, there is little in the way of a progressive alternative coming up on people’s radars – only the forces of reaction…