Caribbean at risk of more large earthquakes

(c) newscientist

* 18:32 15 January 2010 by Kate Ravilious

Earthquake experts are warning that the devastating quake that struck Haiti on Tuesday could be the first of several in the region. They say historical records suggest that not all the energy that has built up in the faults running through the Caribbean region was released in this week’s tragedy.

Their fear is that enough energy remains in the fault system to trigger another earthquake of the same scale as Tuesday’s.

The last time Haiti was struck by earthquakes of this scale was in 1751 and 1770, when three large earthquakes hit within the space of 20 years. They ruptured the same fault segment as the one that slipped on Tuesday, as well as segments lying further to the east, in Haiti and the neighbouring Dominican Republic.

"Last time round there was a sequence of earthquakes," says Uri ten Brink, an expert on earthquakes in the region from the US Geological Survey in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. "I’m worried, as we might expect the eastern side of the fault to rupture next." Other geologists concur. "Stress transfer along the fault is likely to trigger a chain of quakes," says Bill McGuire from University College London.
Far-reaching effects

Another, larger earthquake could affect surrounding nations as well. The fault that was responsible for Tuesday’s quake extends west through Jamaica. Another runs parallel to it in the north, along the southern edge of Cuba and the northern side of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Historical records suggest that both these faults produce large and destructive earthquakes every few centuries.

"They are dangerous especially when large population centres like Port-au-Prince, Kingston in Jamaica or Santiago in the Dominican Republic are so close to them," says Paul Mann from the University of Texas at Austin, who published a paper in 2008 that forecast a major quake in the region.
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