Home > Israeli hawks circle Iran’s N-plants
Nuclear Wars and conflicts International
By Tim Butcher in Jerusalem
Ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution the only fate Iran has had in mind for Israel has been simple: its destruction. Now that Teheran seems to be moving towards acquiring its own nuclear arsenal, its plans for its great enemy threaten to be both fiery and radioactive.
Sometimes Iran’s stated policy towards Israel is couched in inflammatory rhetoric, like that on a 40ft banner that used to hang outside the entrance of the foreign ministry in Teheran bearing the message: "Israel Must Burn".
Sometimes the language is tamer, such as the "Down With Israel" chants of students who march after Friday prayers in Teheran week in, week out.
But whatever the tone, the message remains the same. The Jewish state has survived wars, internal upheaval, intifadas and bloody entanglements in the internal affairs of its neighbours. But now a major enemy, one committed to its annihilation, appears close to deploying the most destructive force known to Man.
"Having the ayatollah regime armed with nuclear weapons is an existential threat to the state of Israel," Mark Regev, senior spokeman at its foreign ministry, admitted grimly. "We take the issue extremely seriously.’’
But while the danger Israel faces is clear, what it should do about the threat poses much more of a quandary.
Some Israelis cite the precedent of the 1981 unilateral Israeli airstrike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. Israel, they argue, should do the same again and launch pre-emptive military attacks on Iran’s growing nuclear infrastructure.
But Iran has developed its nuclear programme with such a scenario in mind. It has deliberately spread its facilities far and wide, using nine locations, according to one intelligence source.
And each facility is buried under tons of reinforced concrete, making it more difficult to destroy, even with the help of the BLU-109 "bunker-buster" bombs the US is selling its closest Middle Eastern ally.
Iran, moreover, is further away from Israel than Iraq, raising even greater doubts about the ability of the F15 and F16 planes Israel would use in any air raids to reach their target and then make it home without being refuelled.
And there is also the question of how the aircraft would get close enough to hit their targets. The US controls Iraqi airspace but it seems inconceivable that Washington would open it up to Israeli combat jets and tankers.
While the problems facing air strikes are significant, Israel’s military nevertheless believes it has the means to cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear capability.
Israel’s cruise missiles, launched from planes or submarines, give the country a capability that it did not have in 1981 when it attacked the Iraqi reactor with a conventional bombing sortie.
"It’s a bit more challenging in Iran but the military option remains a real one," said David Ivri, a retired Israeli air force officer who commanded Operation Opera, the attack on Iraq’s reactor.
"After all, the aim would not be to neutralise the Iranian nuclear programme. That would be impossible. But what we could do is delay it considerably.
"That was our aim in Iraq and that is what we achieved - a very long delay.’’
The calculation Israel must make is a simple one: when will Iran become a nuclear power?
The Iraq attack was launched only when Israel’s intelligence concluded that Saddam Hussein’s regime was within a year of producing its own nuclear weapons.
It also followed a lengthy diplomatic campaign by Israel to dissuade France from selling nuclear technology to Iraq. When that failed, Mossad agents blew up components due to be shipped to Iraq at a warehouse in France.
Only when it was clear that Iraq’s nuclear programme continued did Operation Opera get the green light.
According to a senior figure in the Israeli Defence Force quoted in the Jerusalem Post, Iran will not be able to produce a nuclear bomb until 2008 at the earliest; 2012 is a more realistic date and experts believe that the current situation is insufficiently acute to warrant military action.
"The best-case scenario for Israel is that the negotiations between Iran and the European Union succeed," said Emily Landau, senior research associate at the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "And at the moment that is still the most likely possibility.
"If you look at the wording of every statement by Iran, they sound defiant but always include some sort of reference to the talks and the possibility of some sort of new initiative. As long as this sort of language continues, then a full-blown crisis can be avoided."
This would suit Israel, which backs the negotiations and wants to avoid turning the current crisis into a row between Iran and itself.
As long as international negotiators are taking the lead, Israel is happy to stay on the sidelines.
And there is one important factor at play: it is one of the Middle East’s worst kept secrets that Israel has the nuclear bomb. Iran certainly knows this and it will have a clear deterrent effect.
The result is that Israel might not need to take pre-emptive military action against Iran - if only because Teheran would never use a nuclear weapon against Israel for fear of itself being attacked, and annihilated, by the Jewish state’s nuclear arsenal.
tim.butcher@telegraph.co.uk
Forum posts
12 August 2005, 20:41
I doubt that Tim Butcher is a reader of this blog... But...
It is unrealistic that Iran would attack Israel. The Iranians are not stupid.
This article begins of by saing, "Ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution the only fate Iran has had in mind for Israel has been simple: its destruction." How does Tim Butcher come to this conclusion? It is only in the english media that I have ever seen such "quotes" and mindset attributed to the Iranians. It is another one of those "spook youself out and attack the Muslims" stance that the Whites ever respond to and can come up with.
And it is true, repeat it often and it becomes reality; at least a reality for the Whites.
13 August 2005, 03:33
It is not unusual for folks like Tim to choose a convenient historical starting point.
I suspect its not out of ignorance either.
His little tale comes unravelled when you know the basic facts about Iran.
In 1923, 1944 and in 1951 Mohammed Mossadeg was democratically elected as Prime Minister He was removed from power in a complex plot orchestrated by the British and the US intelligence agencies.
Operation Ajax ( yes you guessed it...primarily oil and partly cold war positioning.)
All this information has been declassified and known to those who want to know it.
After that ’Royal’ brutal killer the Shah was installed, eventually overthrown, primarily by students. He fled to the home of the brave and the land of the free.
When his return for war crimes was demanded Uncle Sam did his usually thing, for his fallen puppets telling the students, to go to, you know where.
The reaction... right again... the taking of US Embassy Officals hostage.
Khomeini packed his bags and flew home from France, greeted by milllions with FLOWERS!!!
A later bluprint helped Saddam to power in Iraq....with probably a similiar outcome awaiting us.
All our ’best intentions’ in installing dictators or uninstalling democratic regimes come back to bite us in the ass. But if you lie down with dogs there is a good chance of getting fleas.
Poor Israel, Poor Tim, poor reporting ......no wonder they hate our policies....while we are told its our freedoms they REALLY hate...there may be too many fleas in our media.
13 August 2005, 00:25
Maybe Israel and the U.S. should look over Iran’s shoulder and they may see Russia and China, both packing nukes and both with a relationship with Iran that warrants some retaliation should things get out of hand.
13 August 2005, 03:46
If that happens my friend we can all kiss our ass and say goodbye. Experts in the field of atomic radiation believe that crockroaches have the best chance of all the species of surving this event. I wish this was a joke.
There are enough atomic and nuclear weapons, to kill us eight time over assuming every buddy joined the show.
Where would the surving coachroach fit: in Darwinan or Intelligent Creation theory ?
13 August 2005, 08:36
To all American and Israeli butchers and war criminals: Iran is not developing nor is it planing for nuclear weapons.
Ridiculous the Jewish state which owns already nuclear weapons tries to accuse others.
We have the same situation as between the period 1933-1945 - a world is watching the war criminals:
America, Britain and Israel.
14 August 2005, 22:44
The pupette goverment in Iraq backed by the United States will take out Iran’s nuclear capability within the next 3 years once the Iraqi Army is up to strength. A USA, Iraqi coaltion will take care of Iraq and Syria that is the long-range objective of current US foreign policy. Without Iran & Syria, Hamas will dry-up and waste away alowing Lebanon to become a real country again. The Palestinians will have no-where to turn but to a pro American Suadi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq thus bringing peace to the region. That is the plan now we will see what happens. Leaving the muslim radicals no-where to go but Africa which will be the next step in the USA foreign policy.
16 August 2005, 04:36
I think your first sentence has no basis in reality.
In short its a pipe dream.
The Iraq army I’ve heard about contains three brigades of about 800 men each. Their equipment is sub standard in every respect. This makes sense, look at what the US reserves get, it too lacks in many areas.
Perhaps the most telling fact is that when the US go on combined missions with the ’Iraq army’
no disclosure of destination, duration, goal or objectives is shared. The ’Iraq army is so compromised that the intented targets would be warned before the order to ’lock and load’ had been given.
The cohert combative force structures, are the tribal militas of the Sunni, Shias and Kurds.they share in one goal, to remove the US army from the country.
As Tribal groups they are all but impossible to infiltrate, and after removing the foreign occupation armies, they will get on to shorting out their specific interests. Shoud be an interesting show.