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> Collapse of U.S. Economy Imminent

21 January 2006, 18:18

Over the past few decades I’ve observed shrill warnings regarding the imminent collapse of the US economy and/or impending war. Neither has happened, really (discounting the recent actions in Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Yugoslavia, Aghanistan and Iraq, which were not expansive). It has seemed like a 30+ year continuous barrage of fear-mongering. Many of the unconventional political and economic pundits have wanted to sell their books and newsletters. Preaching gloom and doom, peppered with an extra helping of urgency, makes for good sales. So, retrospectively, it has been wise to not let one’s self be unduly agitated by, well, agitators.

That said, I observe that there is plenty of evidence now that a major disruption our way of life is imminent. Can illegal immigration continue unabated? Can the loss of jobs offshore continue apace? Can the deficits, both internal and international continue and grow? I’m sure that you, dear reader, can think of other issues that cannot continue unabated. This means that change is on the way. The question is, will it be fundamental, cathartic change or gradual, incremental change. For the past several decades,the change has been gradual. An example: in 1965, I could buy gasoline for 25 cents per gallon. Now it is almost $2.50 per gallon. That is a 10-fold increase (900%) in 40 years. That change, though gradual, is undenyable. It can be verified by unbiased observation. Okay, we can, and have survived that increase. Our world has not fallen apart. But I worry that we have been lulled into complacency. The straw that breaks the camel’s back comes to mind. Solid systems can endure a seemingly endless stream of injury and yet survive, perhaps crippled, but survive. Until the breaking point is reached. When the breaking point arrives, change that beforehand was gradual and incremental, becomes sudden, dramatic and cathartic.

So are we at that breaking point?

Gosh, I don’t know. But I understand the concept of a breaking point. I also understand how people can be lulled into a false sense of "security" when year after year they are warned about impending doom and nothing really significant happens.

Personally, I suspect that the breaking point is near. I deduce this from reports of specific actions, such as is reported in the post to which I am responding. But there are other, more subtle, indicators too. For example. Can anyone please tell me what we, as a people, look forward to? If you have children, what career would you suggest they pursue? Financial services (which is largely counting other people’s money?) I’m not saying there are no opportunities. But I do see that the range of opportunities for all social strata are more and more limited. Does anybody who thinks really want a job working for a large corporation? Do you really like swallowing all the BS that large corporations force their employees to accept? The reason all this BS in corporations is supportable is that somebody is still paying the bill for the non-producitivity that it causes. For example, Sarbanes-Oxley rules. Who benefits from the application and review of Sarbanes-Oxley rules? Certainly not the productive classes. Hell, the mature black lady in the corporate cafeteria who makes my lunch is 10 times the contributor to social good than the army of Price Waterhouse Coopers consultants who swarm over the company, searching out evil-doers who have not complied with the "rules." But that same black lady can afford a house only by the auspices of Habitat for Humanity. She is one of the working poor. Okay, you say, twas ever thus. Yes, true enough, but never to such an extent. Most of the people I know - including myself - are engaged in activities that do NOT PRODUCE WEALTH. The highest paid people in the country are the least productive. They may be clever, but they neither create nor produce. And most worrisome is that nowadays, if you’re "smart" you are trained to aspire to to such endeavors. The best and the brightest wash around in the production of others, over whom they feel superior. The illegal Mexican who tends their grounds, the poor Chinese who makes their toaster and microwave and so on. Putting aside the issue of moraility here, how long can this last?